:Product: 19991213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 347 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD.  NEW REGIONS 8796
(S27W03), 8797 (S35E10), 8798 (S14E73), AND 8799 (S08E74)  WERE
NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM.  MAJOR STORM
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 13/0900 - 1200Z.
THE PRECISE SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS UNKNOWN.  THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DECREASED BELOW HIGH LEVELS
AROUND 13/0500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE
IS NOW DECREASING.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 DEC-16 DEC
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 DEC 166
PREDICTED   14 DEC-16 DEC  175/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        13 DEC 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 DEC  011/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 DEC  026/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 DEC-16 DEC  012/015-010/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 DEC-16 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01