:Product: 19991215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 349 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8798
(S14E49) PRODUCED FREQUENT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AND OCCASIONAL LOW
LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST WAS A C2/SF AT 15/1417Z. THIS
REGION BEGAN TO GROW AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD. IT IS
ALSO IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO REGION 8799 (S09E48). CONTINUED GROWTH IN
8799 WOULD RESULT IN A MERGING OF THESE TWO REGIONS. SEVERAL SMALL
FILAMENTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FADED DURING THE PERIOD.  AN
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS REPORTED BY THE MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY FROM
SE35 NEAR 15/1930Z. RECENT SOLAR X-RAY IMAGES SHOWED A SMALL TO
MODERATE SIZE REGION ABOUT TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW. REGION 8798 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS
AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM THE 8798/8799
COMPLEX.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SOLAR WIND
VELOCITY WAS LOW AND BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWARD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
CLASS M    20/25/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 DEC 179
PREDICTED   16 DEC-18 DEC  182/182/181
90 DAY MEAN        15 DEC 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 DEC  001/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 DEC-18 DEC  005/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01