:Product: 19991216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 350 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8799 HAS MERGED WITH
REGION 8798 (S14E34) AND IS NOW PART OF THAT ONE REGION. REGION 8798
IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AREA OF 410
MILLIONTHS. IN WHITE LIGHT REGION 8798 HAS A COMPLEX APPEARANCE BUT
REMAINS MAGNETICALLY CLASSIFIED AS A BETA GROUP. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 16/0744Z. THREE NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8802 (S23E04), REGION 8803
(S14E24), AND REGION 8804 (S18E78).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8798 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 DEC 194
PREDICTED   17 DEC-19 DEC  200/210/195
90 DAY MEAN        16 DEC 169
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC  005/005-008/008-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05