:Product: 19991218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 352 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE.  ACTIVE REGIONS 8798
(S13E09) AND 8806 (N19E62)  HAVE PRODUCED FREQUENT MINOR FLARES
INCLUDING 2 WEAK CLASS M EVENTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  REGION 8806
AND NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8807 (N11E68) ARE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS THAT
HAVE ROTATED INTO VIEW ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE WITH UP TO CLASS M EVENTS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8798,8806,
AND 8807.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS DECLINED FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SMALL CORONAL HOLE ROTATES INTO POSITION TO AFFECT EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 DEC-21 DEC
CLASS M    45/45/45
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 DEC 206
PREDICTED   19 DEC-21 DEC  205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN        18 DEC 170
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 DEC  008/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 DEC-21 DEC  007/008-008/015-006/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 DEC-21 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/09/07
MINOR STORM           02/02/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                06/12/10
MINOR STORM           03/03/06
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01