:Product: 19991219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 353 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  MINOR FLARES HAVE
CONTINUED IN ACTIVE REGIONS 8798 (S13W05) AND 8806 (N19E50).  A
TYPE II RADIO BURST, UNASSOCIATED WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY, WAS
REPORTED AT 19/1231Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 9798 AND 8806 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MINOR EVENTS.  REGION 8798 HAS A MORE COMPLEX STRUCTURE
WHILE REGION 8806 HAS A LARGE, COMPLEX SPOT GROUP OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY BUT IT DOES NOT YET HAVE AS WELL DEVELOPED
PLAGE STRUCTURE AND COMPLEXITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE IT MAY REACH ACTIVE
LEVELS LATE IN THE THREE-DAY PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
CLASS M    45/50/50
CLASS X    15/20/20
PROTON     05/05/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 DEC 207
PREDICTED   20 DEC-22 DEC  205/200/195
90 DAY MEAN        19 DEC 170
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 DEC  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 DEC-22 DEC  006/006-008/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 DEC-22 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           02/02/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                12/10/10
MINOR STORM           03/03/06
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01