:Product: 19991223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 357 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY OCCASIONAL LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8806
(N19W01) PRODUCED MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE LARGEST
EVENT, A C3/SF AT 1955Z. THE REGION WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS: THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS PREDOMINANTLY BIPOLAR,
BUT THERE IS A PENUMBRAL AREA IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GROUP THAT
IS CLOSE TO A DELTA CONFIGURATION.  REGION 8798 (S14W59) CONTINUES
TO BE THE OTHER LARGE GROUP ON THE DISK BUT ONLY PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, WITH REGIONS 8806 AND 8798 AS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES.
THERE IS A CONTINUED FAIR CHANCE FOR MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8806 DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 DEC 198
PREDICTED   24 DEC-26 DEC  195/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        23 DEC 173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC  001/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC  002/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 DEC-26 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01