:Product: 19991229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Dec 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 363 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 DEC 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  CLASS C FLARES HAVE BEEN
INFREQUENT, PRIMARILY FROM REGION 8806 (N19W82).  THE REGION IS
SLOWLY SIMPLIFYING AS IT NEARS WEST LIMB PASSAGE.  NEW REGION 8813
(S16E63) AND REGION 8814 (N10E73). APPEAR COMPARATIVELY SIMPLE AND
SMALL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
LOW.  REPORTS OF AN ACTIVE FILAMENT IN REGION 8806 INDICATE
CONTINUING POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED, ENERGETIC EVENTS OCCURRING IN
AND AROUND THE REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SHOW INCREASING ACTIVITY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
EARTH MOVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS IN THE SOLAR
WIND.  ACTIVITY IN REGION 8806 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED PROTON EVENT
IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BUT MAJOR PROTON FLUXES AT EARTH ARE UNLIKELY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 DEC-01 JAN
CLASS M    35/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 DEC 144
PREDICTED   30 DEC-01 JAN  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        29 DEC 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 DEC  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 DEC  006/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 DEC-01 JAN  010/010-012/015-020/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 DEC-01 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    03/03/06
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/40
MINOR STORM           06/06/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/03/06