:Product: 20000101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 001 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL MINOR OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN
18 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTED AROUND 01/1407Z FROM NEAR S39W59. THE
FOUR SPOT REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK EXHIBITED LITTLE OR NO CHANGE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.
EFFECTS FROM THE CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM THAT BEGAN ON 30
DEC CONTINUED THIS PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH DAY
TWO. EXPECT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY DAY THREE AS THIS DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO WANE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JAN 130
PREDICTED   02 JAN-04 JAN  130/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        01 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 DEC  020/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JAN  028/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JAN-04 JAN  020/020-020/020-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                65/65/40
MINOR STORM           25/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/40
MINOR STORM           35/35/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/10