:Product: 20000102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 002 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE MINOR OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 01/2245Z. ONLY FOUR MOSTLY STABLE
SUNSPOT GROUPS ARE VISIBLE NOW WITH NO OBVIOUS COMPLEXITY EVIDENT. A
LARGE 22 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED FROM NEAR S28W03.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ISOLATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. DISTURBED CONDITIONS FROM
THE CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED STREAM THAT BEGAN ON 30 DEC, CONTINUED
THIS PERIOD.  THE GREATER THAN TWO MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE
TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR
STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED
DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY DAY TWO. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY DAY THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JAN 133
PREDICTED   03 JAN-05 JAN  130/130/135
90 DAY MEAN        02 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JAN  021/027
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JAN  016/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JAN-05 JAN  015/015-015/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                65/50/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/60/40
MINOR STORM           35/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01