:Product: 20000103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 003 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8813 (S16W07) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE SINCE YESTERDAY, A C5/SF AT 02/2227UT. THIS ACTIVE
REGION IS GROWING AND HAS MIXED POLARITIES IN THE LEADER SUNSPOTS.
OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND INFORMATION
SUGGESTS THAT THE CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH-SPEED STREAM IS
DIMINISHING. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CURRENT
DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JAN 133
PREDICTED   04 JAN-06 JAN  135/135/140
90 DAY MEAN        03 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JAN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JAN  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JAN-06 JAN  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01