:Product: 20000106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 006 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8816 (N21W42) PRODUCED A
C5/1N FLARE AT 06/0653UT. THIS REGION HAS GROWN SINCE YESTERDAY BUT
IS STILL A RELATIVELY SMALL SUNSPOT GROUP. NEW REGIONS NUMBERED ARE
8819 (N10W25), 8820 (S16E71), AND 8821 (N25E80).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. AN
ISOLATED PERIOD OF STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRED FROM 06/1200-1500UT.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JAN 145
PREDICTED   07 JAN-09 JAN  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        06 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  010/010-005/008-005/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01