:Product: 20000107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 007 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED WITH THE LARGEST A C5 AT 1740Z. THIS EVENT APPEARED TO
ORIGINATE FROM AN AREA NEAR THE SOUTHEAST LIMB SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH A
SF FLARE FROM REGION 8819 (N10W25). REGION 8819 WAS BY FAR THE MOST
ACTIVE DISK REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB CONTINUED TO BE THE SITE
OF SURGING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TWO RETURNING ACTIVE REGIONS ARE
DUE THERE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ELSEWHERE, ONE NEW REGION WAS
ASSIGNED, 8822 (N16E03).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THE PROSPECTS OF M-LEVEL EVENTS MAY INCREASE, PENDING WHAT RETURNS
IN THE SOUTHEAST.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ELECTRON FLUX ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AROUND 1400Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE INTERVAL. ACTIVITY MAY
INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF AS A CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JAN 150
PREDICTED   08 JAN-10 JAN  155/160/165
90 DAY MEAN        07 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN  015/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN  010/010-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01