:Product: 20000109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 009 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8824 (S13E75) HAS BEEN ONE OF
THE FEW BRIGHT SPOTS ON AN OTHERWISE DULL DISK. MINOR SURGING
PERSISTS NEAR SE15.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ON
11 JANUARY WHEN A HIGH-SPEED STREAM IS DUE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JAN-12 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JAN 161
PREDICTED   10 JAN-12 JAN  165/170/175
90 DAY MEAN        09 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JAN  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JAN-12 JAN  010/012-015/020-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JAN-12 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/40/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01