:Product: 20000110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 010 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8824 (S13E62)
PRODUCED AN M3/2N EVENT AT 1350Z, NOT LONG AFTER IT HAD GENERATED A
C9/SF AT 0912Z. THE GROUP IS A MODEST-SIZED BIPOLE, WITH A SEEMINGLY
SIMPLE MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8825 (N11E58)
ROTATED INTO VIEW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN NEAR MIDDAY ON
09 JANUARY. THE FLUX ATTAINED A VALUE NEAR 2 PFU EARLY TODAY, AND IS
NOW SUBSIDING. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REACHED HIGH LEVELS AGAIN TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM MAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD FADE QUICKLY, GIVING WAY
TO QUIET CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JAN 163
PREDICTED   11 JAN-13 JAN  165/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        10 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JAN  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JAN-13 JAN  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JAN-13 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01