:Product: 20000114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 014 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY 4 C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
NOTED. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8827 (S12W58) WHICH HAS SHOWN
SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AND ALSO PRODUCED THE
LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C6/SF AT 14/1711UT. THE MOST COMPLEX
REGION REMAINS 8824 (S13E08) WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. REGION 8824 SHOWED STRONG
PLAGE FLUCTUATION DURING THE PERIOD BUT ONLY PRODUCED A SINGLE
OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8829 (N17E40) ALSO SHOWED PLAGE
FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENINGS DURING THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE REGIONS SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE OF ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8824 AND 8829 ARE BOTH POTENTIAL SOURCES FOR
ISOLATED M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JAN 201
PREDICTED   15 JAN-17 JAN  210/215/215
90 DAY MEAN        14 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01