:Product: 20000115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 015 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED.  REGION 8827 (S12W70) PRODUCED MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8824 (S14W03) REMAINS THE MOST
COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION
AND APPROXIMATELY 70 SUNSPOTS.  NEW REGIONS 8834 (S16W60), AND 8835
(N08E57) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8824 HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCED AN
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX  AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS ENHANCED BUT STARTED TO DECREASE
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JAN 211
PREDICTED   16 JAN-18 JAN  215/210/210
90 DAY MEAN        15 JAN 176
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JAN  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01