:Product: 20000118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 018 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8831 (S18E01)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M3/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 18/1727Z WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AND AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 400 KM/S.  REGION
8824 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 18/1008Z.  REGION 8837 (S08W27) RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED DURING THE PERIOD AND IS CURRENTLY A DSO BETA SUNSPOT
GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 9 SPOTS.  NEW REGIONS 8837 (S08W27)  AND
8838 (N12E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8824 AND 8831 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.  AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 18/1500 -
1800Z..
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD THEN BECOME
QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DUE TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE M3 X-RAY
EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/01/01
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JAN 195
PREDICTED   19 JAN-21 JAN  190/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        18 JAN 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN  005/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01