:Product: 20000119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 019 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, ONLY MINOR C FLARES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MINOR GROWTH IN REGION 8837
(S09W41), ALL ACTIVE REGIONS APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.  NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8831 (S19W12) OR REGION 8824 (S13W58).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN BASICALLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
THERE WAS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ENERGETIC PROTON FLUXES FOLLOWING
THE FLARE ACTIVITY ON 18 JANUARY, HOWEVER, FLUXES APPEAR TO BE
RETURNING TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL 21 JANUARY WHEN THE FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF THE M FLARE ACTIVITY
ON 18 JANUARY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JAN 179
PREDICTED   20 JAN-22 JAN  175/170/165
90 DAY MEAN        19 JAN 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN  010/008-015/012-020/028
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05