:Product: 20000120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 020 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  OF THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS
ON THE DISK, REGION 8837 (S08W55) HAS SHOWN THE MOST DEVELOPMENT,
DOUBLING IN AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.  REGION 8824 (S13W72)
CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.  REGION 8839
(N11E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.  A MAJOR SEGMENT OF THE POLAR CROWN
FILAMENT NEAR N60E10 DISAPPEARED AFTER 0800UT ON 19 JANUARY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8837 AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  A K OF 4 WAS
OBSERVED IN BOULDER AT 1200UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THRU 22 JAN.  SOLAR WIND DATA
FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT CONTINUE TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF AN
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK.  ON 23 JAN THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
CLASS M    40/40/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JAN 171
PREDICTED   21 JAN-23 JAN  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        20 JAN 178
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  012/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  015/012-025/035-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/20
MINOR STORM           10/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/02/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/06/01