:Product: 20000122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 022 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE, AN M1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED
AT 22/1802UT FROM REGION 8831 (S17W53).  THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A MINOR RADIO BURST AND WAS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF THE LARGE FILAMENT NEAR S43W32.  THERE ARE NINE
SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK, BUT ALL APPEAR STABLE OR DECAYING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE.  A SHOCK WAS SEEN BY THE ACE
SPACECRAFT AT 22/0023UT, HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO NOTICEABLE IMPULSE ON
GROUND-BASED MAGNETOMETERS FOLLOWING THE SHOCK AT ACE.  THE BZ
COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY FIELD HAS BEEN NEGATIVE (SOUTH) FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY, REACHING A MINIMUM OF -18NT AROUND 22/1800UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RETURNING TO QUIET
LEVELS AFTER 23 JAN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
CLASS M    40/30/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JAN 151
PREDICTED   23 JAN-25 JAN  150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        22 JAN 177
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  010/012-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01