:Product: 20000130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 030 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8848 (S09E27) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT: A C2/SF AT 1823Z. REGION 8841 (S30W47),
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK AT 100 MILLIONTHS, WAS QUIET AND
STABLE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8845 (S16E48) APPEARED TO BE
GROWING YESTERDAY AND PRODUCED A B-CLASS EVENT, BUT HAS DEVELOPED TO
A VERY STABLE AND QUIET H-TYPE CONFIGURATION. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED
ON THE DISK TODAY: 8850 (S18E25) AND 8851 (N27E42).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CONTINUATION OF A
HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX  ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. MOST OF
THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT
HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JAN 133
PREDICTED   31 JAN-02 FEB  135/137/137
90 DAY MEAN        30 JAN 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN  022/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB  015/015-015/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                45/45/45
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05