:Product: 20000131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 031 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JAN 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. MINOR GROWTH
OCCURRED WITHIN REGIONS 8848 (S09E13) AND 8851 (N27E29), BUT BOTH
REMAINED SMALL AND SIMPLY STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
UNREMARKABLE. NEW REGION 8852 (N10E14) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY VARIED BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED LEVELS.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE FIRST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JAN 139
PREDICTED   01 FEB-03 FEB  140/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        31 JAN 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN  012/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB  012/010-010/010-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01