:Product: 20000202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 033 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. ONE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARE WAS DETECTED. REGION 8851
(N26E03) CONTINUED TO SHOW MINOR GROWTH, BUT REMAINED SMALL AND
SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE SMALL, SIMPLE, AND
STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8855 (N15E57) AND 8856
(S15E82).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON
05 FEBRUARY WITH THE EXPECTED RETURN OF OLD REGION 8824 (S13, L =
175).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 FEB 144
PREDICTED   03 FEB-05 FEB  150/155/170
90 DAY MEAN        02 FEB 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB  005/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB  005/010-005/005-007/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01