:Product: 20000203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 034 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED IN THE LOW
CATEGORY. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE
NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED. REGIONS 8848 (S08W29) AND 8854 (S34E59)
EACH PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
OBSERVED IN ANY OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. NEW REGIONS 8857 (S20E04)
AND 8858 (N23E73) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MOSTLY LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON 05 FEBRUARY WITH THE RETURN OF PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE
LONGITUDES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING 06 FEBRUARY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
CLASS M    10/20/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 FEB 154
PREDICTED   04 FEB-06 FEB  155/170/180
90 DAY MEAN        03 FEB 173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB  009/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB  005/007-007/007-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01