:Product: 20000204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 035 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M3/SF OCCURRED AT
04/0919Z IN REGION 8858 (N26E64). FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE MAJORITY ORIGINATING IN REGION 8858.
AN IMPRESSIVE C7/1F FLARE AND ASSOCIATED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WERE
ALSO OBSERVED FROM THIS REGION AT 04/1950Z. NEW REGION 8860 (N26E06)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8858 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO UNSETTLED THROUGH DAY ONE. OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE DUE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 FEB 167
PREDICTED   05 FEB-07 FEB  170/175/180
90 DAY MEAN        04 FEB 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  007/010-012/015-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/25
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/30
MINOR STORM           01/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01