:Product: 20000206RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Feb 06 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 037 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 FEB 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C2/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8858 (N27E40) WAS THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE SINCE PRODUCING THE X1/3B MAJOR FLARE YESTERDAY. SOME NEW SPOTS WERE DETECTED BUT OVERALL, THE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE REMAINS THE SAME. SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8861 (N07W27), WHICH PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN REGION 8851 (N24W48). A PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ERUPTING OFF THE SE LIMB AT 06/1650Z. NEW REGION 8862 (S04E75) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 RETAINS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL SMALL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORMING PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE ON DAY ONE. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. MATERIAL FROM YESTERDAY'S IMPRESSIVE X1/3B CORONAL MASS EJECTION ALL APPEARED TO BE EASTWARD BOUND FROM ITS SOURCE NEAR THE NE LIMB AND WILL LIKELY NOT EFFECT EARTH. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 FEB-09 FEB CLASS M 40/40/35 CLASS X 15/15/10 PROTON 05/05/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 06 FEB 178 PREDICTED 07 FEB-09 FEB 180/185/190 90 DAY MEAN 06 FEB 173 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB 010/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB 017/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB 015/015-010/010-008/010 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 FEB-09 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 40/40/30 MINOR STORM 25/25/20 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 50/50/40 MINOR STORM 30/30/20 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 10/10/05