:Product: 20000207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 038 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8861 (N08W40) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD, A C4/SF AT 07/1654Z. THIS REGION
WAS ACTIVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES. WHITE LIGHT GROWTH WAS ALSO IMPRESSIVE,
DEVELOPING FROM 20 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO OVER 200 MILLIONTHS
TODAY. SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IS ALSO EVIDENT. REGION 8858
(N27E27) WAS ONCE AGAIN RELATIVELY STABLE, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SINCE THE X1/3B FLARE ON 5 FEB. MODERATE MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY STILL EXISTS BUT LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN ANYTIME IN
THE PAST 48 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY NOTED IN THE REMAINING
REGIONS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8858 AND 8861 BOTH HAVE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A
DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN ON 5 FEB IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY
POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WILL BE
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. SOLAR WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING SOON. EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    15/10/10
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 FEB 182
PREDICTED   08 FEB-10 FEB  185/190/195
90 DAY MEAN        07 FEB 173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  021/024
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  015/015-008/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           25/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/25
MINOR STORM           30/25/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01