:Product: 20000208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 039 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8858 (N28E14)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B AT 08/0900UT WHICH INCLUDED A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP
AND OTHER MINOR RADIO OUTPUT. THIS SUNSPOT GROUP HAS DECAYED A
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8861 (N07W53) CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND PRODUCED A FEW C-CLASS FLARES. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/1F AT
07/2328UT. FOUR NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED - 8863 (S14E70), 8864
(N44W16), 8865 (S12E22), AND 8866 (N18E64).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY IN REGIONS
8858 AND 8861.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 FEB 174
PREDICTED   09 FEB-11 FEB  176/178/178
90 DAY MEAN        08 FEB 172
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 FEB  019/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 FEB  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 FEB-11 FEB  010/010-010/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 FEB-11 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01