:Product: 20000209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 040 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST INTERESTING EVENT OF
THE PAST DAY WAS A LONG DURATION C7/2F FLARE IN SPOTLESS REGION 8853
(S13W40) AT 09/2006UT. REGION 8858 (N27E01) CONTINUED TO DECAY
SLOWLY. THE LARGEST FLARE IN THIS REGION SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C6/SN
AT 09/0051UT. REGION 8861 (N07W68) CONTINUED TO GROW BUT ONLY
PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY. NEW REGIONS 8867 (S14E32) AND 8868
(S24E33) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8858 AND 8861 ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES
FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS OCCURRED AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM 09/1200-1800UT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 FEB 199
PREDICTED   10 FEB-12 FEB  178/178/176
90 DAY MEAN        09 FEB 172
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01