:Product: 20000210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 041 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N27W10) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C7/1N LONG-DURATION EVENT
PEAKING AT 10/0208UT. THE FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A TYPE II SWEEP
AND DISCRETE RADIO BURST THAT INCLUDED 240 SFU AT 2695 MHZ AND 3400
SFU AT 245 MHZ. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGIONS
8869 (S25E70) AND 8870 (N20E77) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8858.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE SECOND AND
THIRD DAYS DUE TO FLARE/CME ACTIVITY WHICH OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 9.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 FEB 176
PREDICTED   11 FEB-13 FEB  176/176/174
90 DAY MEAN        10 FEB 171
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB  010/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB  010/015-015/010-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05