:Product: 20000211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 042 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8858 (N24W25) CONTINUED
TO PRODUCE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION HAS SHOWN FURTHER
DECAY IN SUNSPOT AREA AND COMPLEXITY. OTHER REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY
INACTIVE. NEW REGIONS 8871 (S14W09) AND 8872 (S28E79) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 REMAINS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED UNTIL ABOUT 11/0300UT
WHEN A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON THE BOULDER MAGNETOMETER.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOLLOWED DURING THE 11/0300-0600UT PERIOD. THE SI
IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CME THAT OCCURRED ON 08
FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ELEVATED ACTIVITY LEVELS
ARE POSSIBLE ON 12-13 FEBRUARY DUE TO CMES THAT OCCURRED ON 09 AND
10 FEBRUARY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 FEB 170
PREDICTED   12 FEB-14 FEB  170/170/168
90 DAY MEAN        11 FEB 170
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  012/013
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  015/020-015/030-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05