:Product: 20000212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 043 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8858 (N25W38)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 0410Z. THE EVENT INCLUDED TYPE II AND IV
SWEEP, AS WELL AS MODERATE (340 SFU AT 245 MHZ) DISCRETE RADIO
BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. THAT EVENT WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF AN
OTHERWISE QUIET DAY. THE ELEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS COULD BE DESCRIBED
AS GENERALLY BEING IN A STATE OF DECAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS.
BOULDER MEASURED A SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT OF 19 NT AT 11/2353Z. MINOR
TO SEVERE STORM CONDITIONS FOLLOWED OVER THE NEXT 15 HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS THOUGHT TO BE THE RESULT OF THE PASSAGE OF A CME THAT
LEFT THE SUN ON 09 FEBRUARY. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS SLIGHTLY ENHANCED, STARTING AROUND 0600Z.
THE PEAK VALUE WAS 2 PFU AT 1120Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR STORM LEVELS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS EFFECTS
FROM TODAY'S STORM LINGER. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED IS STILL NEAR 550
KM/S. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 14 FEBRUARY, FINALLY YIELDING TO
UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME SUBSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 FEB 163
PREDICTED   13 FEB-15 FEB  160/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        12 FEB 170
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 FEB  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 FEB  045/048
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 FEB-15 FEB  030/035-020/020-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 FEB-15 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/30
MINOR STORM           50/40/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    20/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/40
MINOR STORM           60/50/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    25/15/05