:Product: 20000214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 045 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY FLARE, WITH
NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL, OCCURRED AT 13/2334Z. ONE NEW REGION, 8874
(S08E54), WAS ASSIGNED, MAKING A TOTAL OF 11 SPOTTED REGIONS NOW
VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A
TRANSIENT, WITH ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELDS, PASSED ACE AROUND 0700Z.
THESE STRONG FIELDS, COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY FASTER THAN USUAL
SOLAR WIND (700 KM/S), SET OFF INTERVALS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING
AT ALL LATITUDES. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS SINCE DROPPED, NOW JUST
LESS THAN 600 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EPISODES OF
ACTIVE OR MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THIS CALMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 FEB 159
PREDICTED   15 FEB-17 FEB  155/155/150
90 DAY MEAN        14 FEB 169
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  025/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  015/015-010/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/10
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/30
MINOR STORM           25/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01