:Product: 20000215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 046 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8867 (S16W47) HAD THE
PERIOD'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT, A C1/SF AT 1855Z. THE DISK HAS TWELVE
SPOTTED REGIONS, INCLUDING TWO NEW GROUPS: REGIONS 8875 (S23E55) AND
8876 (S13E62). ALL ARE MAGNETICALLY SIMPLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT MID LATITUDES, AND
QUIET TO ACTIVE AT HIGH LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS HAVE
RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 FEB 156
PREDICTED   16 FEB-18 FEB  155/150/150
90 DAY MEAN        15 FEB 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 FEB  020/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 FEB  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 FEB-18 FEB  010/008-005/008-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 FEB-18 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01