:Product: 20000219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 050 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGION 8869 (S20W49). REGION 8869 WAS BY FAR THE MOST
ACTIVE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8869 PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE
AT 19/1547UT AND A C8/SF FLARE AT 19/0633UT. THIS REGION ALSO
PRODUCED SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PERIOD, REGION 8869 SHOWED A 50% GROWTH IN AREA AND NEARLY
DOUBLED THE NUMBER OF SPOTS, FROM 26 TO 44. ITS MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX, DEVELOPING INTO A BETA-GAMMA
CLASSIFICATION. AN UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT
19/0844UT WITH A REPORTED SPEED OF 1200 KM/S. THE REST OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS FROM REGION 8869.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE UNSETTLED PERIOD
OBSERVED AT 19/09-1200UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORMING LEVELS FOR THE FIRST TWO
DAYS OF THE PERIOD, WITH POSSIBLE MAJOR STORMING AT HIGHER
LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE SHOCK OF A
FULL-HALO CME PRODUCED BY THE M2/2N EVENT ON FEBRUARY 17TH. THE
THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BECOMING UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 FEB 145
PREDICTED   20 FEB-22 FEB  140/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        19 FEB 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  002/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  030/025-030/050-015/030
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/50/30
MINOR STORM           30/30/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/40
MINOR STORM           50/50/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    25/25/10