:Product: 20000222RSGA.txt :Issued: 2000 Feb 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY : : : : : : : : : : CORRECTED COPY : : : : : : : : : : SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 2000 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE M1 X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED FROM REGION 8869 (S18W87). THEY WERE: AN M1/2B AT 21/2319Z, AN M1/SF AT 22/0856Z, AND AN M1/SF AT 22/1133Z. SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 8882 (S16E57) DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH IN BOTH AREA AND SPOT NUMBER DURING THE PERIOD. THE PENTICTON 10.7 CENTIMETER FLUX IS ESTIMATED TODAY DUE TO ENHANCED VALUES. NEW REGION 8883 (N13E60) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBLITY OF M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS REGION 8869 ROTATES OVER THE WEST LIMB. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE IN THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD TO DUE THE EFFECTS OF A RETURNING HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB CLASS M 30/25/25 CLASS X 05/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 22 FEB 164 PREDICTED 23 FEB-25 FEB 145/135/130 90 DAY MEAN 22 FEB 164 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB 015/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB 010/012-015/015-015/023 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 20/25/25 MINOR STORM 05/10/10 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 25/35/35 MINOR STORM 10/15/15 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 05/05/05