:Product: 20000228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 059 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  NO MORE THAN CLASS C
FLARES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  SOLAR WIND
CONDITIONS REMAIN TYPICAL OF THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL HOLE.
VELOCITIES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 600 TO 700 KM PER SECOND RANGE.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT
REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
OFF-AXIS EFFECTS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ON 26 FEBRUARY AND A
TYPE II SHOCK REPORTED AT 28/1027 Z HAVE SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
ALERT THRESHOLD FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 FEB-02 MAR
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 FEB 219
PREDICTED   29 FEB-02 MAR  220/220/220
90 DAY MEAN        28 FEB 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 FEB-02 MAR  012/010-012/025-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 FEB-02 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                07/06/06
MINOR STORM           03/03/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                09/07/08
MINOR STORM           04/04/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01