:Product: 20000229RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Feb 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 060 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 FEB 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF CLASS M FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE STILL
ABOVE EVENT THRESHOLDS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/20/20
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 FEB 219
PREDICTED   01 MAR-03 MAR  220/220/220
90 DAY MEAN        29 FEB 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 FEB  012/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 FEB  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  012/020-010/012-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01