:Product: 20000301RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 061 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  CONSENSUS OF THE REPORTS
FOR REGION 8882 (S15 W45) INDICATE AN INCREASE IN ITS COMPLEXITY.
IT AND REGION 8891 (S16 E08) REMAIN THE LARGEST, MOST COMPLEX
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE SUN.  A SERIES OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE
OCCURRED ABOVE THE SOUTHEAST LIMB AND SOME MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
ACTIVITY IN  REGION 8882, INDICATING A SOURCE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MORE ENERGETIC X-RAY EVENTS,
PRIMARILY FROM REGIONS 8888 AND 8892.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN ACTIVE.  SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
THE ACE SATELLITE INDICATE A TRANSITION OUT OF CORONAL HOLE-DRIVEN
CONDITIONS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A RAPID CHANGE IN PARAMETERS
AROUND 01/2000Z MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOCK PASSAGE.  ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUX GREATER THAN 2 MEV AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED
BELOW ALERT THRESHOLDS TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.   ACTIVITY LEVELS MAY BE
INFLUENCED IN A FEW DAYS BY THE INTERPLANETARY EFFECTS FROM A SPATE
OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 MAR-04 MAR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 MAR 233
PREDICTED   02 MAR-04 MAR  225/225/225
90 DAY MEAN        01 MAR 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 FEB  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 MAR  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 MAR-04 MAR  012/012-012/012-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 MAR-04 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/02/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    03/03/03