:Product: 20000304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 064 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8882 (S15W83) PRODUCED TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C6/SF AT
03/2345Z. TWO NEW SUNSPOT GROUPS EMERGED: REGION 8899 (S11E19) AND
REGION 8900 (S15E16). REGION 8900 SHOWED STEADY GROWTH AND PRODUCED
OCCASIONAL SUBFLARES. THE GROUP DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL, D-TYPE
REGION BY THE END OF THE REPORTING PERIOD. REGION 8891 (S15W29) IS
STILL THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT SHOWED SIGNS OF DECAY AND
WEAKENING MAGNETIC FIELDS. AN 11 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N40W36
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0804-0900Z. X-RAY IMAGES FROM THE YOHKOH
SPACECRAFT SHOWED AN ENHANCED LOOP SYSTEM FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DISAPPEARANCE, SUGGESTING THAT A CME OCCURRED. ANOTHER 15 DEGREE
FILAMENT NEAR S35E50 DISAPPEARED AT ABOUT 1800Z. THIS DISAPPEARANCE
WAS FOLLOWED BY PARALLEL H-ALPHA RIBBONS, A WEAK X-RAY ENHANCEMENT,
A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP, AND A FAINT CME SIGNATURE AS OBSERVED BY THE
MAUNA LOA CORONAGRAPH, ALL OF WHICH INDICATE ERUPTION OF THE
FILAMENT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF REGIONS 8886 AND 8882 OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE EVENT. REGION 8891
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND OBSERVATIONS
AT THE L1 POINT GAVE NO INDICATION OF RECENT FLARE-ASSOCIATED
CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW, WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ACTIVE PERIODS. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS SHOULD FOLLOW ON THE
SECOND DAY, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD
DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT, BUT DECREASING POSSIBILITY THAT A GLANCING
BLOW FROM CME ACTIVITY OF 2 MARCH WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
CLASS M    45/45/40
CLASS X    15/10/05
PROTON     20/15/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAR 200
PREDICTED   05 MAR-07 MAR  195/190/190
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAR 170
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  015/018-010/015-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05