:Product: 20000305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 065 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8898 (S14E35) PRODUCED NEARLY ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES INCLUDING
THE LARGEST: A C9/SF AT 1530Z. THE REGION HAS GROWN RAPIDLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, PRODUCED A TOTAL OF 8 C-CLASS FLARES, AND IS NOW A
140 MILLIONTHS D-TYPE REGION. REGION 8891 (S16W42) CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK, BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER ONE C-CLASS
EVENT: A C5/SF AT 0902Z. 8891 APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. REGION 8900 (S16E02) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH, BUT WAS MUCH
LESS FLARE PRODUCTIVE THAN 8898: THE REGION IS NOW A 230 MILLIONTHS
D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. AN 8 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N24W40 DISAPPEARED
BETWEEN 04/2052-2130Z. THE EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSEQUENT
PARALLEL RIBBONS AND A WEAK LONG-DURATION EVENT IN THE GOES X-RAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SIGNATURE IN CORONAGRAPH DATA OF AN
ASSOCIATED CME. IN ADDITION A 15 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S10W08
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0615-0725Z. IN THIS CASE THERE WERE NO OTHER
OBVIOUS ERUPTIVE SIGNATURES, SUGGESTING THAT THE FILAMENT FADED
RATHER THAN ERUPTED. NEW REGION 8901 (S13E71) EMERGED ON THE DISK
TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY ARE
REGIONS 8898 (ESPECIALLY IF THE CURRENT GROWTH CONTINUES) AND 8891
(GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE MAGNETIC FIELDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHEAR DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN E-W PORTION OF THE POLARITY INVERSION
LINE). ALTHOUGH REGION 8882 (S16W90+) IS BEYOND WEST LIMB, IT COULD
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO X-RAY LEVELS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
CLASS M    55/50/50
CLASS X    15/10/10
PROTON     10/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 MAR 220
PREDICTED   06 MAR-08 MAR  225/225/225
90 DAY MEAN        05 MAR 171
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 MAR  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 MAR  007/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 MAR-08 MAR  010/012-007/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 MAR-08 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05