:Product: 20000309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 069 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED, TWO OF WHICH WERE PRODUCED BY REGION
8906 (S16E55). THIS REGION MAY POSSESS A MIXED-POLARITY STRUCTURE,
BUT LIMB PROXIMITY PREVENTED A DETAILED ANALYSIS. REGION 8900
(S15W51) SHOWED SIGNS OF DECAY. REGION 8898 (S13W20) SHOWED MINOR
GROWTH. NEW REGION 8908 (S19E71) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8898,
8900, AND 8906.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 MAR 206
PREDICTED   10 MAR-12 MAR  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        09 MAR 173
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 MAR  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 MAR  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 MAR-12 MAR  008/008-008/008-008/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 MAR-12 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01