:Product: 20000310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 070 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS WITH NUMEROUS
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OBSERVED. REGION 8906 (S16E44) CONTINUED AS THE
LARGEST OF THE VISIBLE SPOT GROUPS, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. IT PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH
WAS A C7/SF AT 10/1758UT. REGION 8900 (S16W63) CONTINUED TO DECAY
AND PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE
STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAR 203
PREDICTED   11 MAR-13 MAR  200/195/180
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAR 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  007/007-007/007-007/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01