:Product: 20000311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E31)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 11/0927Z. TIGHT MAGNETIC GRADIENTS AND A
POSSIBLE DELTA CONFIGURATION EXIST IN THIS REGION WHICH ALSO
PRODUCED A C4/SF AT 10/2318Z AND A C6 FLARE AT 11/0415Z. NEW REGIONS
8909 (S18W20) AND 8910 (S29E76) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8906.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAR 203
PREDICTED   12 MAR-14 MAR  200/195/195
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAR 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/012-007/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01