:Product: 20000312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 072 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENTS OF THE
PERIOD WERE A C6/SF FROM REGION 8904 (N23W59), AND A C6/1F FROM
REGION 8898 (S13W59). BOTH FLARES EXHIBITED MINOR MULTI-FREQUENCY
RADIO BURSTS. REGIONS 8904 AND 8906 (S15E18) PRODUCED SEVERAL
SMALLER C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8906 REMAINS THE LARGEST REGION ON
THE VISIBLE DISK AND NOW EXCEEDS 800 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
A MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION AND MODERATE TO STRONG GRADIENTS ARE
ALSO APPARENT. REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8906 WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT. MOSTLY C-CLASS ACTIVITY
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT, EXPECTED FROM REGIONS
8898 AND 8904 AS THEY APPROACH THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD BEGAN THE PERIOD AT QUIET LEVELS BUT WAS
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE SINCE. ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS WERE ALSO
OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ISOLATED MINOR
STORMING PERIODS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AGAIN, MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR 203
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR  007/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  015/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  012/010-010/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/30
MINOR STORM           30/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01