:Product: 20000313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 073 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16E06)
PRODUCED AN M3/1B AT 12/2338Z AND AN M1/1N AT 13/1048Z. BOTH FLARES
HAD ASSOCIATED MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS REGION WAS ALSO
RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES AND MAINTAINS A MAGNETIC
DELTA CONFIGURATION WITH MODERATE TO STRONG MAGNETIC GRADIENTS.
REGION 8910 (N09E56) WAS MODERATELY ACTIVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 13/1439Z. BOTH REGIONS 8898 (S14W70) AND 8904
(N24W70) APPEAR TO BE DECAYING AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8906 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND OCCASIONAL M-CLASS FLARES. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8910 AND FROM REGIONS 8898 AND 8904 AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE WEST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED LEVELS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD,
BUT WAS QUIET SINCE 13/00Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAR 188
PREDICTED   14 MAR-16 MAR  185/180/170
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR  015/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01