:Product: 20000315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 075 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W20)
PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, AN M1/1N AT 15/1840UT.
THIS ACTIVE REGION REMAINS LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX ALTHOUGH
SOME DECAY IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E31)
CONTINUES TO GROW AND HAS PRODUCED A FEW SMALL FLARES. THE LARGEST
WAS A C3/SF AT 14/2105UT. OTHER SUNSPOT GROUPS WERE RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. ADDITIONAL M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGION
8906. A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    40/40/40
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 MAR 179
PREDICTED   16 MAR-18 MAR  175/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        15 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 MAR-18 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05