:Product: 20000316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE WAS A C9/1F
AT 16/1838UT IN REGION 8906 (S16W37). THIS REGION HAS DECAYED
FURTHER SINCE YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH IT STILL RETAINS SOME MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. REGION 8910 (N11E18) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MANAGED TO
GENERATE A C6/SF FLARE AT 18/1420UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8906 REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE OF M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE IN THIS REGION.
C-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION
8910.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAR 184
PREDICTED   17 MAR-19 MAR  180/175/170
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  001/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01