:Product: 20000317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 077 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S16W49)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 17/1125UT. FURTHER DECAY AND MAGNETIC
SIMPLIFICATION IS EVIDENT SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8910 (N11E05)
CONTINUED TO GROW SLOWLY AND MANAGED TO PRODUCE A C6/1F AT
16/2215UT. NEW REGIONS 8915 (N23E62) AND 8916 (N12E74) ROTATED
AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS MOST
LIKELY IN REGIONS 8906 AND 8910. A SMALL CHANCE OF A MAJOR FLARE
REMAINS IN REGION 8906.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAR 192
PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  180/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR 175
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  005/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  005/008-005/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01