:Product: 20000318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2000 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 078 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 MAR 2000
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8906 (S17W62)
PRODUCED AN M2/1N AT 18/2102UT. THIS ACTIVE REGION CONTINUES TO
DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8910 (N11W10) AND 8913
(S16E17) ARE GROWING AND HAVE BOTH PRODUCED SMALL FLARES. NEW REGION
8917 (N20E18) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE PROBABLE IN REGIONS 8906, 8910, AND
8913. ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8906 AND
8910.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 MAR 195
PREDICTED   19 MAR-21 MAR  198/200/200
90 DAY MEAN        18 MAR 174
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 MAR  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 MAR  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 MAR-21 MAR  005/008-005/008-010/013
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 MAR-21 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05